Sunday, February 17, 2008

Cancelled Coal Power Plants

The list of cancelled (or on hold) coal power plants is quite a long one. Let's take the plants in Kansas that were cancelled in Q4 2007 and then recently efforts to resurrect the plants are facing tough times. Evidently, most people welcome such a development. The surge in public awareness against CO2 has made the permitting process extremely difficult for plant developers to develop coal plants. Usually, permits are being denied or sent back asking for specific measures to sequester CO2 rather than dumping into the atmosphere.

This is an interesting argument. While I agree with the general swing that greenhouse gases need to be controlled which means better ways to contain CO2, what I am not convinced is the way this ideology is being enforced. People in the industry would say that carbon capture technology which will not allow CO2 to be released in the atmosphere but rather hold it like the way NOx and SOx are being captured are available but expensive. Also, once we capture, what do we do with that. There are some ideas on using it in some mines or oil wells, but not necessarily there is oil well near a power plant which means there is a transfer cost. Add all of that and where do the economics go. The business case simply fails.

Look at any of these bulk options - coal, gas, nuclear - the story finally unfolds to arrive at this point. There are some negative aspects which we had considered as an externality over the last 100 years of electric power industry. Now we want to attach a value and want it to be addressed. But are we willing to pay for it? Paying for a cooler earth for our children is like giving up our own temptation of buying a new car or going for that exotic vacation and building up the inheritance for our children. Are we ready to do so?

One thing is certain - we need electricity. Renewables cannot meet our demands. The only options that are available are coal, gas, and nuclear. How far do we go in giving up today's needs? Are we prepared to face periodic power shortages? Are we aligned for rate increases when utilities go for their next rate case filing? Are we ready to pay that extra cost when cap and trade comes into effect. Or, a possible carbon tax passed onto us. We have to wait and see - how much of the arguments placed forth in these cancellations are knee-jerk rhetoric and how much is real change in societal perception.

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