Thursday, November 19, 2009

India buying 200 tons of gold - what I remember from 1991

Earlier this month India bought 200 tons of gold from IMF. Read here. It was in 1991 that after a severe financial crisis, India had to sell gold, devalue the currency, and open up the markets for foreign investors to a larger extent. I was then on the verge of completing high school and the popular press - not to mention the communist party characterized the event as a "India pawning and selling out to western world." Fast forward 18 years, we view India very differently from that. Whether the present had to happen since the force of nature was aligned in India's favor, we don't know. But to a large extent, opening up the economy has helped. I wish the old communists who try to pull back any constructive idea with their half baked theory of Marx and Lenin finally wake up. Turning things around like buying the gold takes time. But it happens. Free markets, competition, and openness of opportunity brings a better life compared to protectionism of the mediocre.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Steven Pinkler on Gladwell...

Steven Pinker's review of Gladwell's work (more specifically his latest book "What the dog saw") is definitely worth reading. His points are right on the money. I am a big admirer of Gladwell's writing and have enjoyed almost every bit of it. However, it has to be taken for what its worth. Which is - an entertaining read. As Pinkler points out, in many cases Gladwell gets the science or statistics plain wrong. One of the areas I was looking for Pinkler to point out was the area of intuition and decision making, as well as, the role of practice in the making of a genius. For the real substance, I believe Herb Simon needs some credit from Gladwell -- for what Gladwell says sounds very much what Herb Simon figured out over years of research of people especially chess players. I have to admit that reading Herb Simon is not close to as entertaining as Gladwell. In fact, I credit Prof Shraeger who during my days in Chicago Booth introduced me to Simon's work and its relevance to decision making. But again, we have to caution ourselves. Just as reading a good science reporter does not mean that the reporter is as knowledgeable as the nobel prize winning scientist -- nor does a popular writer like Gladwell expected to teach us "Igon" value problems. Goes back to an old Einstein adage - make things simple but not simpler. That's why specialists are required. Advanced studies are required. And popular reading is not always the best source for intellectual enrichment. In all fairness, Gladwell's review is well balanced. And Gladwell will be a writer I will seek out -- it is always worth reading the stuff he writes.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Losing the Bear Sterns Fraud Case

Disappointing. NYT op-ed criticses how poorly the prosecution handled the case. I agree with what a juror said - that - you cannot blame the crisis on two people. Well, sounds like the old adage - if you kill one person, you are a murderer - if you kill several hundreds you are a conqueror.

Monday, November 02, 2009

Is the stimulus creating jobs?

This is an interesting website. I am not sure if we can say yet - whether the stimulus is creating as many jobs that it was supposed to create.
 
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